Overbooked and Overlooked: Machine Learning and Racial Bias in Medical Appointment Scheduling

Paper by Michele Samorani et al: “Machine learning is often employed in appointment scheduling to identify the patients with the greatest no-show risk, so as to schedule them into overbooked slots, and thereby maximize the clinic performance, as measured by a weighted sum of all patients’ waiting time and the provider’s overtime and idle time. However, if the patients with the greatest no-show risk belong to the same demographic group, then that demographic group will be scheduled in overbooked slots disproportionately to the general population. This is problematic because patients scheduled in those slots tend to have a worse service experience than the other patients, as measured by the time they spend in the waiting room. Such negative experience may decrease patient’s engagement and, in turn, further increase no-shows. Motivated by the real-world case of a large specialty clinic whose black patients have a higher no-show probability than non-black patients, we demonstrate that combining machine learning with scheduling optimization causes racial disparity in terms of patient waiting time. Our solution to eliminate this disparity while maintaining the benefits derived from machine learning consists of explicitly including the objective of minimizing racial disparity. We validate our solution method both on simulated data and real-world data, and find that racial disparity can be completely eliminated with no significant increase in scheduling cost when compared to the traditional predictive overbooking framework….(More)”.